Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season with expectations of becoming a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick. After an uneven start at Texas, however, his draft stock has fallen, creating a new possibility for teams looking toward the future.
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranked Manning No. 24 overall and sixth among quarterbacks in his October 2026 rankings. That represents a significant change from the projections that once placed the Texas quarterback near the top of the 2027 class.
For the Dallas Cowboys, Manning’s slide presents an intriguing hypothetical. Dak Prescott remains the established starter, but the franchise will eventually need a succession plan. Whether Manning becomes a realistic target depends on his development, Dallas’ draft position and how the quarterback market evolves.
Arch Manning’s draft stock has taken a hit
Manning’s early-season performances have fallen short of the expectations surrounding him. Through Texas’ first 6 games, he completed 106 of 166 passes, or 63.9%, for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
One of his most damaging performances came against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Manning threw 2 fourth-quarter interceptions in Texas’ 27-24 defeat. The first was returned for a touchdown, while the second came with 19 seconds remaining and helped Oklahoma set up its winning field goal as time expired.
Manning then completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and 1 touchdown in a 27-24 loss to Florida on Oct. 17. He lost a fumble with 1:58 remaining as Texas attempted to tie or win the game. The back-to-back losses intensified questions about his NFL readiness, but his draft standing remains a projection that could change before the 2027 NFL Draft.
Why Manning could interest the Cowboys
Dallas has a long-term question at quarterback, even with Prescott under contract. At 33, Prescott remains the franchise’s starting quarterback, but the team must eventually consider how it will transition to another player without disrupting its competitiveness.
Manning’s potential availability could make that conversation more interesting. If his draft stock continues to fall, he might become accessible to a team picking outside the top portion of the first round, depending on how other prospects perform.
There is no confirmed indication that Dallas is targeting Manning. The connection is speculative, based on his changing draft outlook and the Cowboys’ eventual need to plan beyond Prescott. Still, a highly regarded prospect becoming more attainable would naturally invite discussion.
Prescott remains the Cowboys’ established starter
Prescott is not a quarterback Dallas can easily replace. He signed a 4-year, $240 million contract extension in September 2024 that keeps him under contract through the 2028 season. Dallas’ current salary-cap records also include a 2029 void year, but that accounting entry does not extend his playing contract through 2029.
His experience and familiarity with the offense make him central to the Cowboys’ immediate plans. A rookie quarterback would need time to learn the professional game, understand the system and demonstrate that he could handle the responsibilities of leading an NFL franchise.
Drafting Manning would therefore not necessarily mean an immediate change at quarterback. Dallas could allow him to develop behind Prescott if the organization believed he had the potential to become a reliable starter.
The Cowboys would need the right draft position
Manning’s draft slide alone does not guarantee Dallas will have a realistic opportunity to select him. The Cowboys’ eventual draft position will depend on their season, while other teams’ needs could influence how quickly quarterbacks leave the board.
If Manning rises again, a team picking early could select him before Dallas gets a chance. If his ranking remains lower, the Cowboys might have a better opportunity, although another franchise could still move up to acquire him.
Trading up would introduce additional costs. Dallas would need to weigh the value of a quarterback prospect against the draft capital required to secure him, as well as other roster weaknesses that demand attention.
Manning still has time to improve at Texas
Manning’s season is not over, but the pressure increased after Texas suffered consecutive 27-24 losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Steve Sarkisian defended Manning after the Oklahoma defeat, saying the quarterback faces unusually intense scrutiny because of his family name.
Following the Oct. 17 loss to Florida, however, Sarkisian said Texas would evaluate everything as the offense continued to struggle. The Longhorns still have meaningful games ahead, giving Manning opportunities to demonstrate greater consistency, improve his decision-making and limit costly turnovers.
A few strong performances would not erase every concern, just as a difficult stretch should not define Manning’s entire career. NFL teams will evaluate his complete body of work, physical tools, processing ability and development before making a major investment.
The 2027 quarterback class could change quickly
Manning is not the only quarterback drawing attention from NFL evaluators. Other prospects, including Drew Mestemaker, Darian Mensah and CJ Carr, have strengthened their positions in early draft discussions, creating more competition near the top of the class.
That competition matters because draft rankings are fluid. A prospect who looks like a potential first-round selection in October could move up or down as the season progresses, while injuries and team needs can also change the overall picture.
For Dallas, the broader quarterback class may offer alternatives if Manning does not fit its draft position or evaluation. The Cowboys should compare the available prospects rather than treat a famous surname or an early ranking as sufficient reason to select a player.
A rookie quarterback would bring both promise and risk
Selecting a quarterback in the first round can provide a team with a potential long-term starter on a rookie contract. It can also create a development challenge, especially if the player is expected to take over before he is ready.
Manning would need to adjust to faster defensive reactions, more complex coverages and the demands of an NFL schedule. His college reputation and family background would not guarantee success at the next level.
A patient development plan could reduce some of those risks. Keeping Prescott as the starter while a young quarterback learns could provide stability, but Dallas would have to decide whether investing valuable draft capital in a player who might sit is consistent with its broader roster strategy.
Dallas must balance its present and future
The Cowboys’ immediate priority remains building a team capable of winning with Prescott. Adding a developmental quarterback would not solve other problems or automatically improve the team’s results, so any draft decision must fit a wider plan.
Manning’s falling stock creates an interesting possibility, not a confirmed Cowboys pursuit. Dallas would need to evaluate his progress, compare him with other prospects and determine whether its draft position offers a sensible path to selecting him.
The coming months should bring a clearer picture of Manning’s NFL readiness and Dallas’ quarterback plans. If the prospect continues to slide, the Cowboys could face a difficult decision. For now, Prescott remains the starter, and Manning still has work to do at Texas.
Fun fact: Dak Prescott founded the Faith Fight Finish Foundation in memory of his mother, Peggy, who died of colon cancer in 2013
TL;DR
- Arch Manning’s draft stock fell after an inconsistent start to the 2026 season at Texas.
- ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranked him No. 24 overall and sixth among quarterbacks in October.
- The Cowboys could consider a long-term quarterback plan, but there is no confirmed report that they are pursuing Manning.
- Dak Prescott remains Dallas’ established starter under a multiyear contract.
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This article was made with AI assistance and human editing.
