Alabama’s Ty Simpson is widely regarded as the second-best quarterback in the 2026 draft class. He posted electric numbers in his only season as a starter. Yet the number haunting NFL front offices is deceptively simple: 15. That is his total college starts. And that single digit is reshaping his entire draft narrative.
The 2026 draft is loaded with quarterback-needy teams desperate to find their franchise guy. Simpson has the tape, the pedigree, and the Alabama bloodline to earn a first-round spot. But history warns that short-resume quarterbacks carry real risk. Whether teams trust the tape or fear the trend will define exactly where Simpson hears his name called on April 23.
Let’s take a closer look.
Who is Ty Simpson?
Simpson is a five-star recruit from Martin, Tennessee, who waited three seasons before becoming Alabama’s starter in 2025. He grew up around football as the son of UT Martin head coach Jason Simpson, and that background helped shape his understanding of the game long before he took over at Alabama.
As a senior at Westview High School, Simpson threw for 2,827 yards and 41 touchdowns and won Tennessee’s Gatorade Player of the Year award. He signed with Alabama over Clemson, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and other major offers, and ESPN rated him the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in the 2022 class.
Three years of waiting behind elite QBs
Before Simpson ever started a college game, he spent years learning behind two Heisman Trophy contenders. From 2022 to 2024, Simpson barely saw the field. He watched Bryce Young win the Heisman and go No. 1 overall in the 2023 draft. Then he backed up Jalen Milroe. He threw just 381 passing yards across those three seasons combined. It was a long wait that tested his patience and his commitment to the program.
Simpson has described those years as valuable preparation. He has said the Alabama environment, including scout-team work against defenders such as Will Anderson Jr. and Dallas Turner, helped prepare him for life as a first-year starter.
Fun fact: Simpson turned down a reported $6.5 million transfer portal offer from the University of Miami to stay at Alabama and enter the NFL Draft as a program captain.
The 15-start problem NFL teams cannot ignore
If Simpson is selected in Round 1, he will be the 10th quarterback with 20 or fewer college starts drafted on day one since 2006. That group includes names like Mitchell Trubisky, Trey Lance, and Dwayne Haskins. The results from that group have not been encouraging for teams hoping to find a franchise cornerstone.
One NFC general manager told ESPN that many evaluators draw an internal line somewhere between 20 and 25 college starts. The thinking is simple: more starts mean more data. More data means a clearer picture of whether a quarterback can handle adversity, adjust to in-game pressure, and manage a full NFL-style workload week after week.
His 2025 season, a tale of two halves
Through his first nine games, Simpson completed roughly 70% of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just one interception. He led Alabama past four straight ranked SEC opponents including Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. He looked every bit like a franchise quarterback in the making.
Then things changed. Over his final six games, Simpson completed 60.5% of his passes for 1,106 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions, while Alabama averaged only 104.1 rushing yards per game and leaned heavily on him late in the season. He also dealt with injuries down the stretch, including gastritis before the playoffs and a cracked rib against Indiana, which complicated the evaluation of his late-season slide.
Fun fact: Simpson threw only five career interceptions across 523 pass attempts at Alabama, a statistic that set the program’s all-time record for the lowest interception percentage in school history.
The historical comparison that gives teams hope
History is not all bad news. One famous short-resume QB became the NFL’s MVP just four years after being drafted. Cam Newton made only 14 college starts at Auburn before Carolina selected him No. 1 overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. He went on to win the Heisman Trophy, earn three Pro Bowl selections, and capture the 2015 NFL MVP award. His career is the gold standard example that raw starts do not have to determine NFL destiny.
Newton is the exception though, not the rule. Of the nine short-resume quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 2006, only Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, and Kyler Murray signed a second contract with their original teams. That means the majority did not last. NFL teams know that exception well, but they also know the odds that come with it.
What the scouts and analysts are saying
Daniel Jeremiah has said he sees Simpson more as a second-round value than a locked-in first-round pick, largely because of his limited résumé. NFL.com has also noted durability questions tied to Simpson’s smaller frame, while Bleacher Report’s scouting report says he must improve his anticipation, especially on out-breaking routes.
On the other side, ESPN analysts Jordan Reid and Field Yates believe Simpson is the clear-cut QB2 in the class and expect him to go in Round 1. CBS Sports ranked him second among all quarterbacks and praised his pre-snap processing as among the best they have seen at the college level in recent years. His Alabama pro day only added fuel to that side of the debate.
Where Simpson could land on draft day
Simpson had a private workout with the New York Jets, who hold two first-round picks and are in search of a long-term answer at quarterback. Mel Kiper projected him to the Jets in his early mock draft. The Rams at No. 13 represent another possibility as a team that could look for a successor to the aging Matthew Stafford. Both destinations would give Simpson a veteran to learn from.
Arizona and Cleveland have both surfaced as possible landing spots for Simpson, and the early second round remains a realistic outcome if no team moves up late in Round 1. Recent projections have placed him across a wider band, from the late first round into the early second, depending on how teams balance his tape against his limited starting experience.
TL;DR
- Ty Simpson started only 15 games at Alabama and is still considered the No. 2 QB in the 2026 draft class.
- His first half of the 2025 season was outstanding. His second half raised legitimate concerns among scouts.
- Nine QBs with fewer than 20 college starts have gone in Round 1 since 2006. Most did not pan out long-term.
- Cam Newton is the most encouraging comparison. Mitchell Trubisky and Trey Lance are the cautionary ones.
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This article was made with AI assistance and human editing.
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