Home News A look at current odds for Conor McGregor’s rematch with Max Holloway

A look at current odds for Conor McGregor’s rematch with Max Holloway

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Max Holloway with his championship belt
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Conor McGregor at an event

UFC 329 sets McGregor return date

Ultimate Fighting Championship scheduled UFC 329 McGregor vs Holloway 2 for July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, making the rematch the event’s welterweight main bout during International Fight Week.

The welterweight listing shows McGregor at 22-6-0 and Holloway at 27-9-0, giving readers the core records before the Irish fighter’s first scheduled appearance in the promotion since July 2021 at UFC 264 in Nevada.

Conor McGregor first fight in the UFC vs Marcus Brimage

McGregor brings a long layoff

McGregor has not competed in the promotion since July 10, 2021, when his Dustin Poirier bout ended by doctor stoppage at UFC 264 in Las Vegas after a leg injury, creating a five-year return window.

That nearly five-year gap provides a clear data point, as top-level MMA often rewards activity, timing, conditioning, recent rounds, and steady work against elite opponents before marquee bouts in UFC scheduling.

Max Holloway with his championship belt

Holloway brings current activity

Holloway has fought six times since 2023 and went 4-2 in that span, giving him more current cage data than McGregor before their UFC 329 rematch in Las Vegas for market comparison.

Holloway also leads the UFC record book with 3,980 total strikes and 3,681 significant ones landed, which shows the volume behind his market support before July 11 across official career totals.

A fighting venue with an octagon in the middle

UFC 329 uses welterweight listing

UFC 329 places McGregor and Holloway in a welterweight main event, creating a different setting from their first featherweight meeting in 2013 at UFC Fight Night 26 for this scheduled rematch.

The listing matters because McGregor built much of his UFC profile at featherweight and lightweight, while the July 11 rematch carries a higher weight class for both fighters in the 2026 lineup.

UFC fight night

McGregor and Holloway go back to 2013

McGregor and Holloway first met on August 17, 2013, at UFC Fight Night 26, when both fighters were early in their featherweight careers on a Boston card in Massachusetts.

McGregor won that featherweight bout by unanimous decision, and the 2026 rematch arrives nearly 13 years later, with Holloway leading current prediction markets before the Las Vegas event for market context.

Conor McGregor at an event

Kalshi volume shows market interest

Kalshi listed about $6 million in volume across 2 markets for McGregor vs Holloway 2, indicating broad trader attention on the headline contract page before the July 11 event in Las Vegas.

Polymarket also listed markets related to McGregor vs Holloway, including winner and round-threshold contracts, giving traders multiple ways to price the scheduled UFC 329 rematch before final settlement.

Max Holloway at his press conference

Markets move but keep Holloway ahead

Earlier market reporting placed Holloway near 68% to 69% across major prediction platforms, while McGregor sat near the low 30% range in late May.

By July 1, current listings still favored Holloway. Kalshi showed Holloway around 64% to 65% and McGregor around 35% to 36%, while Polymarket-linked tracking also kept Holloway ahead before the event.

Polymarket website interface viewed through a magnifying glass

Polymarket offers more contract types

Polymarket offered more than a winner market for McGregor vs Holloway, with contract types tied to distance, round thresholds, and victory-method categories before UFC 329 in Las Vegas.

Those markets let traders price how the bout unfolds, not only who wins, while each contract still carries financial risk until final settlement after the event concludes for users on the platform.

Focus on the UFC logo in the weigh ins

UFC 329 card goes past the main event

The UFC 329 card features Benoît Saint Denis facing Paddy Pimblett, Cory Sandhagen meeting Mario Bautista, and Brandon Royval taking on Lone’er Kavanagh, among the current listed matchups for July 11 in Nevada.

The light heavyweight listing adds Robert Whittaker against Nikita Krylov below McGregor vs Holloway, giving the Las Vegas lineup more named fighters beyond the main event for July 11 on the card schedule.

T Mobile arena in Las Vegas, Nevada

T-Mobile Arena sets early venue times

T-Mobile Arena lists UFC 329 for Saturday, July 11, 2026, with doors opening at 1 PM and the first scheduled bout at 2 PM for ticket holders planning arrival times locally.

Those local venue times sit hours before the televised main card, giving ticket holders a longer event window at the Las Vegas arena before main-card coverage begins for home viewers outside Nevada.

Paramount+ logo on smartphone screen

Paramount+ schedule gives U.S. times

The U.S. viewing schedule lists early prelims at 5 PM, prelims at 7 PM, and the main card at 9 PM on Paramount+ for national coverage of the full card from Las Vegas.

That order gives viewers a clear three-part broadcast window before McGregor and Holloway close the July 11 card from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during the Saturday evening event coverage slot on Paramount+.

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Conor McGregor at an event

UFC 329 takeaway remains market led

UFC 329 combines a scheduled event in Las Vegas, a returning former champion, a 2013 rematch, and live market prices that favor Holloway ahead of the T-Mobile Arena card on July 11.

The main data points remain clear before fight night, as Holloway holds market support, McGregor carries the comeback question, and official schedules place the main card on Paramount+ for U.S. viewers.

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Do you think Holloway’s market edge reflects activity, or can McGregor’s return change the numbers before UFC 329? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.

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