Baseball has seen great hitters. It has seen great pitchers. Baseball has rarely seen one player perform at an MVP level as both a hitter and pitcher in the same season. That is exactly what Shohei Ohtani is doing right now for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The gap between Ohtani and the rest of the National League keeps widening every month. Experts, bettors, and prediction markets are all pointing to the same outcome. A 4th straight MVP award overall is looking increasingly realistic, though the race is not officially settled.
A run not seen since Barry Bonds
Shohei Ohtani is closing in on a level of dominance nobody has touched in over 20 years. Current betting markets list Ohtani as the clear National League MVP favorite. That kind of lead is almost unheard of right now.
Barry Bonds remains the only MLB player to win 4 straight MVP awards, doing it with the Giants from 2001 through 2004. Ohtani won his 3rd consecutive MVP award overall in 2025 and is now chasing a 4th straight MVP, which would match Bonds’ historic streak.
The numbers fueling his case
Entering early July, Reuters reported Ohtani was hitting .291 with 18 home runs and 50 RBIs through 80 games. His OPS ranks 5th overall, and few players ever blend hitting and pitching at that level. It is a rare combination in baseball history.
After his July 3 start, Ohtani was 8–2 with a 1.79 ERA through 14 starts. His pitching remains a major part of his MVP case, though the fastball-velocity claim should be removed unless directly sourced. Add his power production at the plate, and his two-way case remains difficult for voters to ignore.
Little-known fact: Before turning pro, Shohei Ohtani wrote a high school goal list that included winning the World Series and getting married at age 26.
History he has already made
Ohtani already owns a resume most players could never match in a full career. He signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers, the richest deal in professional sports history at the time. That contract came before he added more MVP hardware with the Dodgers.
In 2024, he became the first player ever to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in one season. He later returned to two-way work in 2025, winning another unanimous MVP after hitting 55 home runs and posting a 2.87 ERA.
Little-known fact: Ohtani once joined Ty Cobb as the only player to finish in the top 2 in the majors in both home runs and stolen bases the same season.
Voters cannot look away
By the end of 2025, Ohtani had won 4 MVP awards overall, including 3 in a row. That leaves him chasing Bonds’ MLB record of 4 consecutive MVP awards. Writers across the league keep landing on the same conclusion when they fill out their ballots each fall.
Ohtani is also the only player in history to win the MVP award unanimously more than once. He has done it 3 separate times already. No other hitter or pitcher, past or present, has ever earned that level of complete agreement from every single voter across the league each time.
Betting markets have already decided
Sportsbooks rarely feel this certain about anything. Ohtani sits as a massive favorite at odds of 1600 to win the award. That price translates to nearly a 94 percent implied win probability, while Pete Crow-Armstrong trails far behind at odds of 30 to 1 instead.
Odds like these are rare in any sport, let alone baseball, where injuries and slumps can change everything overnight. Bettors are essentially treating this MVP race as settled, with months of the season still remaining. That kind of certainty from oddsmakers so rarely shows up this early in any season.
The field is still fighting for second
Behind Ohtani, other stars chase second place. Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in home runs for Philadelphia, while Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll remain in the mix. The field carries odds of +900, roughly a 10% chance to catch Ohtani in this year’s race.
Schwarber himself sits at roughly plus 3500 to win the award outright, a long shot by any measure. Matt Olson and Pete Crow Armstrong round out the group of realistic challengers, but none of them control their own destiny the way Ohtani does every time he steps on the field.
The one real threat
Health remains the only real question mark hanging over Ohtani’s strong MVP case this year. Two-way players carry a heavier physical load than everyday hitters, or regular starting pitchers ever really do. A long stretch on the injured list could easily open the door for a challenger to emerge.
So far in 2026, Ohtani and the Dodgers have managed his heavy workload very carefully. The team has given him occasional rest days to protect both his arm and his legs. That kind of careful planning could be the difference between a healthy finish and a rough late-season slide.
The bigger picture for the Dodgers
A fourth MVP award would matter for more than just Ohtani’s own personal trophy case. The Dodgers are largely built around his production, and his consistency helps steady a lineup filled with other genuine stars. His success on the mound further strengthens an already deep and talented pitching staff.
For baseball as a whole, Ohtani’s ongoing dominance keeps casual fans tuning in every single night. Two-way stardom at this level has never really existed in the sport before. As long as he stays healthy, this MVP race may not end up being much of a race at all.
TL;DR
- Ohtani is chasing a fourth straight NL MVP, matching Barry Bonds’ historic run from 2001 through 2004.
- His 2026 season includes a .412 on-base percentage and a 1.58 ERA through 13 starts.
- Prediction markets give him close to a 46 percent shot, far ahead of any single rival.
- Sportsbooks list him as a minus 1600 favorite, translating to nearly a 94 percent implied win chance.
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This article was made with AI assistance and human editing.
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